Is the U.S. getting Egypt wrong again?

Egyptian riot police stand guard as people protest against Egypt's President Mohamed Morsy in Cairo on December 29, 2012.

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

• National protests against Morsy set for second anniversary of Egypt's revolution


• Cynthia Schneider: U.S. out of step, underestimates the anti-Morsy sentiment


• She says proponents of secular democracy think the U.S. backs Muslim Brotherhood


• She says massive protests will show U.S. needs to align itself with the popular will

Editor's note: Cynthia Schneider is a professor in the practice of diplomacy at Georgetown University; dean at the School of Diplomacy, Dubrovnik International University; and a senior nonresident fellow at Brookings Institution. She is also a former U.S. ambassador to the Netherlands.

(CNN) -- Protests planned around Egypt -- particularly in Cairo's Tahrir Square -- on the second anniversary of the January 25 revolution are expected to be an explosion of dissent, revealing the deep divisions in the country between President Mohamed Morsy and the Egyptian people.

Opposition to Morsy's authoritarianism is broader than the world recognizes. In making accommodations for Morsy's government, the United States is -- once again -- out of step with the Egyptian people.

Cynthia P. Schneider

Egyptians may not know exactly what they want, but they know what they don't want. Although an effective political opposition has yet to coalesce, Egyptians from all sectors of society are united in their refusal to accept another repressive regime.

Egypt is on a collision course. An ever growing, if periodically discouraged, portion of the population opposes the government and Morsy's Muslim Brotherhood, and supports the revolution's goals of social and economic justice, accountable government, and basic freedoms, including freedom of expression and protection of minorities. Yet the government is moving in exactly the opposite direction, with its authoritarian control over political, social, and religious life.

The government's investigation of the wildly popular "Egyptian Jon Stewart" Bassem Youssef -- charged with insulting Morsy and undermining his command -- and the forced "retirement" of respected journalist Hani Shukrallah, editor of state-owned Al-Ahram's English-language website, are just two very public examples of the vice tightening on freedom of expression.

In fact, the Arab Network for Human Rights says about 24 lawsuits for insulting Morsy have been filed against journalists and activists since his election in June.

The regime is trying to put the revolution genie back in the bottle. But it is clamping down on a population that has discovered its voice. In opposition to this repression, Egyptians at all levels are increasingly engaged in politics.

A Cairo cab driver -- ever the measure of popular sentiment -- recently debated the failings of the Constitution with a passenger. After reaching the destination, the driver leapt out, grabbed a dogeared copy of the Constitution he kept in the front seat, and pointed to a passage to prove his point to his passenger.

The December demonstrations against President Morsy and the Muslim Brotherhood-backed Constitution, which attracted an even broader segment of the population than those who stood in Tahrir Square in 2011, revealed the broadening chasm between the regime and the people in Egypt.

Assembled outside the Presidential Palace were old and young, veiled and unveiled, rich and poor. Whether they arrived in chauffeur-driven cars or whether they marched from Cairo's outlying shantytowns, the hundreds of thousands joined together in their refusal to accept a state that squashed the dreams of the revolution and dictated political, social, and religious behavior.

Many call the second wave of the revolution in the fall of 2012 the "Mothers' Revolution." Parents and grandparents went into the streets to protest the divided loyalties in their families between the Islamists (Brotherhood or Salafis) and those supporting a democratic, secular Egypt. In Egypt, secular means freedom from state control of religion, not nonreligious.

The clash between these two visions of Egypt -- secular with freedom and social justice, or a religious state run by the Brotherhood with its version of Sharia law -- played out inside families and on the streets.

Soldiers protecting the Presidential Palace during the December demonstrations were moved to tears when an Egyptian woman, referring to Morsy, shouted at them, "Why are you protecting this man who is pitting Egyptians against each other?"

Mohamed El Gindy, a successful businessman who opposes Morsy and spent much of December camping in Tahrir with the young revolutionaries, has experienced this division within families firsthand. A relative who had joined the Salafis informed him that the extreme Islamist group had put El Gindy at No. 5 on its "hit list," which is widely believed by Egyptians to exist. The relative was unapologetic until El Gindy told him that he might as well put El Gindy's mother on the list, too, since the octogenarian also had joined the street protests.

Egypt and its families may be divided, but on one subject, all are united -- in the belief that the United States is supporting the Muslim Brotherhood-dominated government.

Visible in the throngs at the December demonstrations were signs opposing Qatar and the United States -- yes, the U.S. and Qatar were lumped together as supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood regime.

"This is such a historic opportunity to restore the image of the U.S., but instead it is putting itself in the same position as Qatar. ... And this from President Obama -- so disappointing," Riham Bahi, a professor at American University in Cairo, said, reflecting views heard repeatedly last December in Egypt.

Opposition leader and blogger Bassem Sabry was even more blunt: "With the Constitution in play, you are subsidizing an Islamist state." Sabry said he was always pro-U.S. "until the revolution."

In addition, the Pentagon plans to proceed with the delivery of 20 F-16 jets to Egypt, a step that looks to Egyptians like a vote of confidence in Morsy. Unchanged since the revolution, U.S. aid policy toward Egypt still makes the military alliance its priority.

Two years after the Egyptian Revolution, the U.S. government finds itself again backing an authoritarian regime against the popular will. As January 25 approaches, with massive protests planned against Morsy's government, this is a precarious position for both the U.S. and Egypt.

In his second term, Obama should adopt a more agile and informed policy toward Egypt, one that matches the words often heard from the White House -- "The United States always has stood with the Egyptian people" -- with action.

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The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Cynthia Schneider.

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Cycling: Doping doctor 'worked in various sports'

MADRID: A Spanish doctor on trial over a major blood doping racket involving top professional cyclists said Tuesday he had worked for athletes in "all kinds" of sports.

Eufemiano Fuentes, 57, was testifying at his trial in the so-called Puerto affair, one of the biggest ever doping scandals, which came to court this week seven years after it erupted.

Fuentes is charged with public health offences rather than sports doping, which was not illegal at the time in Spain.

Although the doctor admits providing blood transfusions for athletes, who he refuses to name, he denies this risked their health.

That may limit the trial's impact on the sporting world, which is reeling from US cyclist Lance Armstrong's admission that he doped his way to seven Tour de France victories.

"I worked on a private basis with individual athletes of all kinds," Fuentes told the court in Madrid in his four-hour testimony on Tuesday.

Police detained Fuentes in 2006 when they seized 200 bags of blood and other evidence of performance-enhancing transfusions, in an investigation dubbed "Operation Puerto".

Asked who those bags of blood belonged to, Fuentes told the court: "It could be other kinds of athlete, but in 2006 it was mainly cyclists."

Investigators listed 58 cyclists suspected in the scandal.

Of the 58, only six have received sporting sanctions: Spain's Alejandro Valverde, Germans Jan Ullrich and Joerg Jaksche and Italians Ivan Basso, Michele Scarponi and Giampaolo Caruso, who was later cleared by the Court of Arbitration for Sport.

Fuentes, his sister Yolanda and three other defendants are charged with endangering public health rather than incitement to doping, which was also not a crime in Spain at the time of the arrests.

He denies that his treatment endangered the cyclists' health.

He told the court on Tuesday that athletes such as footballers and boxers came to him for "medical and nutritional advice, physical and medical tests to guarantee that their health would not suffer".

He said he did not know whether the cyclists he treated told their team managers about it.

Fuentes said that he and another doctor, Jose Luis Merino Batres, tested the viscosity of the athletes' blood -- known as the haematocrit value -- and extracted blood if they found the level too high.

After freezing the blood in a bag to preserve it, they re-injected it if the haematocrit value had fallen too low, "because that too is dangerous" for the health, Fuentes said.

Merino has been spared going on trial for the time being since he has Alzheimer's disease.

Fuentes said he kept a "blood diary" recording the extractions and tagged the frozen blood with codes identifying the athletes.

Former cyclist Jesus Manzano, a former rider on Spanish team Kelme of which Fuentes was the head doctor, has alleged generalised doping in the team and says he himself underwent unsafe transfusions.

A court official said Tuesday that Armstrong's former team-mate Tyler Hamilton will testify at the trial, after the judge granted a request by the World Anti-Doping Agency, a civil party in the case.

Other trial witnesses include Alberto Contador, Tour de France winner in 2007 and 2009, who returned to competition last year after a two-year ban for a separate case in which he denied doping. Contador, due to appear on February 5, was cleared of any involvement in the Puerto affair.

The date for Hamilton's testimony had yet to be set.

Fuentes's defence lawyer was due to take the floor on Wednesday and the trial is scheduled to last until March 22.

- AFP/jc

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Arm transplant vet looking forward to swimming, diving

BALTIMORE A soldier who lost all four limbs in an Iraq roadside bombing says he looks forward to driving and swimming with his new arms.

Twenty-six-year-old Brendan Marrocco spoke at a news conference Tuesday at Johns Hopkins Hospital in Baltimore. He was joined by the surgeons who performed the double-arm transplant there.

Marrocco says he's happy and amazed to have new arms. He has prosthetic legs but says that without arms, he felt "kind of lost for a while."

"It's given me a lot of hope for the future," Marrocco said. "I feel like it's given me a second chance."

The procedure was only the seventh double-hand or double-arm transplant ever conducted in the United States.

Dr. W. P. Andrew Lee, the lead surgeon on Marrocco's team, said this surgery "was the most extensive and complicated" transplant surgery ever performed, involving the connecting of bone, nerves, blood vessels, muscles, and other tissue. He said his team had rehearsed four times on cadavers in the last two years.

Marrocco said he already can twist the wrist in his left arm, which had a lower amputation than the right, allowing doctors to begin that arm transplant at his elbow. Lee said nerves regrow at about an inch per month, so given the length of an arm, it will take several months to more than a year for most normal arm movements to occur with Marrocco.

Lee said Marrocco, a New York native, will check out of the hospital Tuesday, and begin outpatient therapy while staying nearby for several months.

The infantryman was injured by a roadside bomb in 2009. The New York City man also received bone marrow from the same dead donor to minimize the medicine needed to prevent rejection.

The military is sponsoring operations like these to help wounded troops. About 300 have lost arms or hands in the wars.

Through all the procedures and the recovery, Marrocco has generally maintained a positive attitude.

Play Video

Young Injured Vet Tells Story

In a 2010 interview with CBS News correspondent David Martin (at left), he said: "I just seem to have a good lookout on things. I'm still alive. My buddy wasn't as fortunate."

Marrocco was referring to one of the other members of his squad, whom he described as his best friend, who was killed when their Humvee ran over a tripwire.

"I remember the flash, the sound, it was ridiculously loud. I remember all the screaming in the truck trying to see who was hurt. After that I remember waking up in the hospital," Marrocco said.

He described the thing that took his limbs as a "copper dart" that was "molten hot," saying it "cauterized my wounds." The New York native said he has marveled at the fact that he survived, when others did not, adding that his friend who died "wasn't hurt nearly as bad as I was."

Even after waking up in the hospital and realizing that he lost his arms, Marrocco said his father told him his reaction was relatively nonchalant, saying "I just shrugged my shoulders and went back to sleep."

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Palin and Fox Part Ways, but Is She Really Over?

Sarah Palin's break up with Fox News should not have been, well, breaking news, as she had publicly complained in August on Facebook that the network had canceled her appearances at the Republican National Convention. And going back even further, Palin didn't give Fox the scoop in October 2011 when she announced she wasn't going to run for president. Still, the news of the Fox split overtook Twitter and the news cycle by storm.

One thing I've learned in my years covering Palin, which began on Aug. 29, 2008, when Sen. John McCain stunned the country by selecting her as his running mate: Everyone has an opinion on whatever she does, and she can get clicks and coverage like no one else.

The prevailing theory now is that since Palin no longer has a megaphone like Fox News through which she can blast her opinions, her moment is now officially over.

The 'Ends' of Sarah Palin

It might be true, but there have been so many "ends of Sarah Palin" that it's almost too hard to keep track of them all. She was over when she lost the 2008 campaign, she was over when she quit the Alaska governorship, she was over when she decided to do a reality show, she was over when she decided not to run for president, and now again, she's over because her appearances on Fox News are over.

Secret Service Scandal: Fired Agent 'Checked Out' Sarah Palin Watch Video

I, for one, did think Palin would lose her relevancy when she quit the Alaska governorship, and also when she didn't run for president. But in both cases, people who both love her and hate her just couldn't get enough information about her, and she still got an incredible amount of news coverage. Her voice was heard loud and clear, even if it blasted only from her Facebook posts. That's just another example of what she's been able to pull off that others who've come before or after just haven't. Palin's been written off from Day One, but like a boomerang, she just keeps coming back.

Yes, she wasn't really helpful to Mitt Romney's campaign, but she also never really explicitly backed him. And what an odd pair they would have made if she had. In her interview last weekend with Steve Bannon, the executive chairman of Breitbart News who made "The Undefeated," the positive 2011 movie about her, she said, "The problem is that some on the right are now skittish because of the lost 2012 election. They shouldn't be. Conservatism didn't lose. A moderate Republican candidate lost after he was perceived to alienate working-class Reagan Democrats and independent voters." Not a sign that she wants to rethink some of her policy points, or that she will retreat into the shadows.

Another Possible TV Home

I think more likely than her fading away (we all still cover every eyebrow-raising Facebook post of hers) is that she will possibly find an on-air home elsewhere, at somewhere like CNN. She told Breitbart.com that she "encourages others to step out in faith, jump out of the comfort zone, and broaden our reach as believers in American exceptionalism. That means broadening our audience. I'm taking my own advice here as I free up opportunities to share more broadly the message of the beauty of freedom and the imperative of defending our republic and restoring this most exceptional nation. We can't just preach to the choir; the message of liberty and true hope must be understood by a larger audience."

Later in the interview, she added, "I know the country needs more truth-telling in the media, and I'm willing to do that. So, we shall see."

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Why haven't we learned from fires?

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

• Pyrotechnics, overcrowding, poor exits have contributed to tragic fires in recent years


• You would think the world would have learned from past incidents, John Barylick says


• Concertgoers have to be their own fire marshals, he says

Editor's note: John Barylick, author of "Killer Show," a book on the 2003 Station nightclub fire in Rhode Island, is an attorney who represented victims in wrongful death and personal injury cases arising from the fire.

(CNN) -- Sunday morning we awoke to breaking news of another tragic nightclub fire, this time in Brazil. At last report the death toll exceeded 230.

This tragedy is not without precedent. Next month will mark the 10th anniversary of a similar nightclub fire in Rhode Island. At this sad time, it's appropriate to reflect on what we've learned from club fires -- and what we haven't.

Rhode Island's Station nightclub fire of 2003, in which 100 concertgoers lost their lives, began when fireworks set off by Great White, an 80s heavy metal band, ignited flammable packing foam on the club's walls.

Deadly blazes: Nightclub tragedies in recent history

John Barylick

Panicked patrons stampeded toward the club's main exit, and a fatal pileup ensued. Contributing to the tragedy were illegal use of pyrotechnics, overcrowding and a wall covering that would have failed even the most rudimentary flammability tests.

Video images of the Station fire were broadcast worldwide: A concert begins; the crowd's mood changes from merry, to curious, to concerned, to horrified -- in less than a minute. You'd think the world would have learned from it. You would be wrong.

The following year, the Republica Cromanon nightclub in Argentina went up in flames, killing 194 people. The club was made to hold about 1,000 people, but it was estimated that more than 3,000 fans were packed inside the night of the fire, which began when fans began lighting flares that caught the roof on fire.

Echoes of the past: Rhode Island victims 'can't help but watch'

Then, in January 2009, at least 64 New Year's revelers lost their lives in a nightclub in Bangkok, Thailand, after fire ignited its ceiling. Many were crushed in a rush to get out of the club. In December of that same year, a fire in a Russian nightclub, ignited by pyrotechnics, killed 156 people. Overcrowding, poor exits, and indoor fireworks all played roles in these tragedies; yet no one bothered to learn from mistakes of the past.

While responsibility for concert disasters unquestionably lies with venue operators, performers and promoters, ultimately, we, as patrons of clubs and concerts, can enhance our own safety by taking a few simple steps. The National Fire Protection Association urges concertgoers to:

• Be observant. Is the concert venue rundown or well-maintained? Does the staff look well-trained?

• As you proceed to your seat, observe how long the process takes. Could you reverse it in a hurry? Do you pass through pinch points? Is furniture in the way?

• Once seated, take note of the nearest exit. (In an emergency, most people try to exit by the door they entered, which is usually not the closest, and is always overcrowded.) Then, share the location of that nearest exit with your entire party. Agree that at the first sign of trouble, you will all proceed to it without delay.

• Once the show begins, remain vigilant. If you think there's a problem, LEAVE IMMEDIATELY. Do not stay to "get your money's worth" despite concerns about safety. Do not remain to locate that jacket or bag you placed somewhere. No concert is worth your life. Better to read about an incident the next day than be counted as one of its statistics.

Read more: How to protect yourself in a crowd

To be sure, all fire codes must be vigorously enforced, and club and concert hall operators must be held to the highest standards. A first step is banning indoor pyrotechnics in all but the largest, stadium-type venues.

But, ultimately, we are our own best "fire marshals" when it comes to avoiding, and escaping, dangerous situations. We can still enjoy shows. But it is up to us to look out for our own safety.

In coming days, Rhode Islanders will follow the unfolding news from Brazil with a sense of queasy deja vu -- the rising body counts, the victim identification process, the grieving families, and the assigning (and dodging) of blame. If only they had learned from our tragedy.

The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of John Barylick.

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Rebels seek funds and arms, Syria's Assad says winning

PARIS: The Syrian opposition appealed Monday for hundreds of millions of dollars to step up the revolt against Bashar al-Assad, as the president asserted his forces had made "significant gains" in the conflict.

At an international meeting in Paris, the main opposition Syrian National Coalition (SNC) said it needs US$500 million in funding to set up an alternative government.

"With a state and a society collapsing, it is the Islamist groups that could gain ground if we do not do what we have to do," France's Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius warned the meeting.

"This conference has to send a clear signal, (that) it has one concrete objective: give the Syrian National Coalition (SNC) the means to act."

But the credibility of the opposition alliance has been damaged by mounting evidence that extremist Islamists are playing a central role in the campaign against Assad.

George Sabra, head of the SNC, the main body in the opposition coalition, said Assad's opponents were desperately in need of cash and arms.

"We need a minimum of US$500 million to be able to establish a government," he said. "And we need weapons, weapons and more weapons."

Arab and Western "Friends of Syria" agreed in December to provide a total of US$145 million of support for the opposition, two-thirds of it from Saudi Arabia, but the money has yet to be delivered.

The SNC was created in November with its various components saying they would fight under a unified military command.

But some hardline groups have declined to join the coalition, saying their goal is the creation of an Islamic state to replace Assad's regime.

A top humanitarian official also appealed for funding on Monday, warning that the United Nations will be forced to cut already reduced food rations to hundreds of thousands of Syrians unless a huge cash injection is found.

"We are putting it squarely to the donors, more cuts are likely," humanitarian operations director John Ging said ahead of a donor conference in Kuwait on Wednesday.

UN leader Ban Ki-moon will seek more than US$1.5 billion in new cash pledges at the Kuwait conference.

Assad, meanwhile, said his troops have gained the upper hand against rebels in the 22-month conflict and could win in "two weeks" should Turkey stop its support for insurgents, a Lebanese newspaper reported.

"The army has a very large lead on the ground and has achieved significant gains," Al-Akhbar quoted him as saying. "If the Turkish border was closed to tackle the smuggling of arms and militants, this matter would be resolved in only two weeks."

On the ground, rebels on Monday took over one of four key suspension bridges in Deir Ezzor, which straddle the Euphrates river and connect the eastern city to Hasakeh province further north, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.

"The bridge is important because that it allows the army to send troops and supplies to Hasakeh," Observatory chief Rami Abdel Rahman told AFP by phone.

Fighting also erupted in a southern district of Damascus, while the army bombed rebel positions on the capital's outskirts, said the Observatory, which gave a toll of at least 61 people killed nationwide, including 23 civilians.

The United Nations says more than 60,000 people have been killed since the start of the conflict in March 2011.

On the international front, US President Barack Obama said in an interview published on Monday that he was wrestling with a decision on whether the US should get involved to resolve the Syrian conflict.

"In a situation like Syria, I have to ask, can we make a difference in that situation?" he told the New Republic magazine.

"Would a military intervention have an impact? ... What would be the aftermath of our involvement on the ground? Could it trigger even worse violence or the use of chemical weapons? What offers the best prospect of a stable post-Assad regime?"

"And what I have to constantly wrestle with is where and when can the United States intervene or act in ways that advance our national interest, advance our security, and speak to our highest ideals and sense of common humanity."

Israel, meanwhile, moved two batteries of its vaunted Iron Dome missile defence system to the north on Sunday in case of military action against Syria or Lebanon, a security source told AFP.

- AFP/jc

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French forces in Mali enter Timbuktu

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

• NEW: "We are winning in Mali," French president says


• French forces are fighting the remaining Islamists in Timbuktu


• Militants are reported to be fleeing to another city farther northeast


• Malian and French forces recaptured an Islamist stronghold last week

Read a version of this story on CNN Arabic.

On the road to Timbuktu, Mali (CNN) -- French-led troops in Mali have seized control of the airport in Timbuktu from Islamist militants and are fighting their way into the city center, spokesmen for the French defense ministry and the Malian military said Monday.

"We are winning in Mali," French President Francois Hollande said at a news conference.

Malian and French forces have together been battling the Islamists to loosen their grip on the country's north, which the militants have controlled for months.

Hollande, who refused to speculate on how long the French intervention would continue, said the Islamists still control the northern part of the country.

The United States has also stepped up its involvement in the conflict by conducting aerial refueling missions on top of the intelligence and airlift support it was already providing.

Photos: Mali military battles Islamist insurgents

Malian and French soldiers scored a key victory last week, taking control of Gao, a city east of Timbuktu that for months had been a militant stronghold. And flushing the Islamists out of Timbuktu, Mali's historic cultural center, would be a big symbolic gain.

The Islamists were reported to be fleeing Timbuktu to the city of Kidal, more than 500 kilometers (300 miles) to the northeast.

New fears for Timbuktu in Mali conflict

The quickening advance of the government forces has brought them to the heart of the territory held by the militants.

Covering the fighting up close is almost impossible for journalists, who are prevented from gaining access to the front line. Journalists are allowed to enter after a town only after it has been freed and its security guaranteed by French and Malian troops.

French forces are involved in the fight in Mali, a former French colony that retains close ties with Paris, in an effort to prevent the Islamists from turning the once-peaceful democracy into a haven for international terrorists.

France has 2,150 soldiers on Malian soil, with 1,000 more troops supporting the operation from elsewhere.

Photos: Fears for Timbuktu in Mali conflict

The Islamic extremists carved out a large haven in northern Mali last year, taking advantage of a chaotic situation after a military coup by the separatist party MNLA. The militants banned music, smoking, drinking and watching sports on television. They also destroyed historic tombs and shrines.

Refugees have told harrowing stories of life under the Islamist militants. But human rights groups have also raised concerns over reports that Malian soldiers are themselves carrying out extrajudicial killings and abuses as they counterstrike.

Six reasons events in Mali matter

The prosecutor for the International Criminal Court issued a statement Monday putting Malian forces on notice that "all those alleged to be responsible for serious crimes in Mali must be held accountable."

"My Office is aware of reports that Malian forces may have committed abuses in recent days, in central Mali," the prosecutor said. "I urge the Malian authorities to put an immediate stop to the alleged abuses and on the basis of the principle of complementarity, to investigate and prosecute those responsible for the alleged crimes."

The restrictions on journalists make it harder to gauge the realities on the ground.

The United Nations' refugee agency, UNHCR, has called for an increase in international aid for the hundreds of thousands of people who have been displaced by the fighting in the country.

More than 150,000 refugees have fled Mali into neighboring countries, and another 230,000 are displaced inside Mali, the agency said.

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Study: Penicillin, not Pill, launched sex revolution

History points to "The Pill" as one of the main triggers of the cultural revolution of the 1960s. The "Swinging 60s" were a time of sexual revolution. But one economist argues it was a far less sexy pill -- penicillin -- that was a major force behind changing sexual mores.

"It's a common assumption that the sexual revolution began with the permissive attitude of the 1960s and the development of contraceptives like the birth control pill," Andrew Francis, an economist at Emory University, said in a press release. "The evidence, however, strongly indicates that the widespread use of penicillin, leading to a rapid decline in syphilis during the 1950s, is what launched the modern sexual era."

Dr. Francis, who conducted an analysis recently published in "Archives of Sexual Behavior," argues that penicillin reduced the risks associated with sex. He compares it to the economic law of demand: when the cost of a good falls, people buy more of the good.

Penicillin was discovered in 1928, but was not widely used until World War II. The U.S. government had to deal with the very real problem of soldiers contracting sexually transmitted diseases. Penicillin was found to be an effective cure for the most damaging: syphilis.

"The military wanted to rid the troops of STDs and all kinds of infections, so that they could keep fighting," Francis said. "That really sped up the development of penicillin as an antibiotic."

After the war, penicillin became widely proscribed, and syphilis rates fell accordingly. Between 1947 and 1957, the incidence of syphilis fell by 95 percent - all but eliminating it as a consequence of sexual activity.

The analysis also unearths dire warnings from doctors of that era. Spanish physician Eduardo Martinez Alonso, writing in the 1950s, pointed to penicillin as a way for immoral people to get away with risky behavior. "The wages of sin are now negligible," he wrote. "One can almost sin with impunity, since the sting of sinning has been removed."

Dr. Francis analyzed data from state and federal health agencies between the 1930s and 1970s. The analysis looked at three measures of sexual behavior: the illegitimate birth ratio; the teen birth share; and the incidence of gonorrhea.

27 Photos

Dangerous sex: 27 vintage STD posters

"As soon as syphilis bottoms out, in the mid- to late-1950s, you start to see dramatic increases in all three measures of risky sexual behavior," Francis said.

While this does not discount the impact of the birth control pill - which Ms. Magazine co-founder Letty Cottin Pogrebin once called "the most revolutionary development of the 20th century" - it does shine a light on an unheralded warrior in America's cultural revolution.

The fact that this unusual analysis comes from an economist is no surprise - at least to economist Andrew Francis.

"People don't generally think of sexual behavior in economic terms," he said, "but it's important to do so because sexual behavior, just like other behaviors, responds to incentives."

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3 Arrested in Deadly Nightclub Fire, Fourth Sought

Brazilian authorities have arrested three people in connection to the fire that killed more than 230 people and injured hundreds at a nightclub in Santa Maria, Brazil, this weekend.

The owner of the popular Kiss nightclub, a member of the band Gurizada Fandangueira and the club's security chief have been arrested and are being questioned by police, the BBC reported today.

A fourth person, who the BBC reports is a co-owner of the club, is still being sought by police.

None of the names of those arrested and being sought have been released.

Coffins lined a gymnasium in Santa Maria today as family members tried to identify their loved ones after a fast-moving fire tore through a crowded nightclub Sunday morning.

A community gym near the Kiss nightclub has been converted to a temporary morgue were family members were led in one by one Sunday night and early this morning to identify the dead. Outside the gym police held up personal objects, including a black purse and blue high-heeled shoe, as people seeking information on loved ones crowded around, hoping not to recognize anything they were being shown.

"Doctors from other parts of Brazil were flown in to assist the medical side of this," BBC reporter Julia Carneiro told ABC News this morning. "One hundred people are injured and in hospital. Some have been flown to other cities that have better hospital capacity."

PHOTOS: Santa Maria, Brazil Nightclub Fire

Flames and smoke outraced a terrified crowd at the Kiss nightclub, located in the southern city of Santa Maria, shortly after 2 a.m. Sunday morning. Panicked partygoers tried to outrun flames and black, thick smoke, but the club appeared to have only one open exit, police Maj. Cleberson Braida Bastianello told The Associated Press.

Brazil Nightclub Fire: Nearly 200 People Killed Watch Video

Police confirmed that the toll had risen to 231 with the death of a hospitalized victim.

Hours after the fire, cellphones on the victims were ringing inside the still-smoldering nightclub as family members tried to contact their loved ones, Brazilian radio reporter Sara Bodowsky told "World News" anchor David Muir.

"It's really like a war zone in here. We have [over 230] bodies laid down, side by side, so the families go inside one by one. They look at the bodies," Bodowsky said.

The first funerals for the victims were scheduled to begin later today for those families who have identified their loved ones.

"It was terrible inside. It was like one of those films of the Holocaust, bodies piled atop one another," police inspector Sandro Meinerz said Sunday. "We had to use trucks to remove them. It took about six hours to take the bodies away."

Investigators believe the blaze began when a band's small pyrotechnics show ignited foam sound insulating material on the ceiling, releasing a putrid haze that caused scores of people to choke to death.

Survivors and police inspector Marcelo Arigony said security guards briefly tried to block people from exiting the club in the mass confusion and chaos moments after the fire began.

But Arigony said the guards didn't appear to block fleeing patrons for long.

"It was chaotic and it doesn't seem to have been done in bad faith because several security guards also died," he told the AP.

Police Maj. Bastianello told the AP by telephone the death toll was likely made worse because the nightclub appeared to have just one exit through which patrons could exit.

A security guard told the newspaper Diaro de Santa Maria that the club was filled to capacity, with 1,000 to 2,000 people inside.

Meanwhile, people outside tried to break through walls to get in to save those trapped inside.

Michele Pereira told the Folha de S. Paulo newspaper that she was near the stage when members of the band lit some sort of flare.

"The band that was onstage began to use flares and, suddenly, they stopped the show and pointed them upward," she said. "At that point, the ceiling caught fire. It was really weak, but in a matter of seconds it spread."

Guitarist Rodrigo Martins told Radio Gaucha that his band, Gurizada Fandangueira, started playing at 2:15 a.m. "and we had played around five songs when I looked up and noticed the roof was burning."

"It might have happened because of the Sputnik, the machine we use to create a luminous effect with sparks. It's harmless, we never had any trouble with it," he said. "When the fire started, a guard passed us a fire extinguisher, the singer tried to use it but it wasn't working."

He confirmed that accordion player Danilo Jacques, 28, died, while the five other members made it out safely.

Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff, who was attending a summit with European Union leaders and the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States in Chile, cut her trip short and returned home to Brazil Sunday.

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Women in infantry: Tough challenge?

Hospital Corpsman Shannon Crowley packs for a mission as Lance Cpl.. Kristi Baker sits on her bed in 2010 in Afghanistan.

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

• Maren Leed: Ban on women in combat has hurt operations, women's promotion


• Leed: Integrating women into the physically demanding infantry presents challenges


• Women are already in combat; she says, the "front line" and "rear line" no longer exist


• Leed: Research into women in infantry might show that some limits might be appropriate

Editor's note: Maren Leed is senior adviser, Harold Brown Chair in defense policy studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. From 2011 to 2012, she served as senior adviser to the chief of staff of the U.S. Army. Follow the Center for Strategic and International Studies on Twitter.

(CNN) -- In the coming years, lifting the ban on women in combat, announced Thursday by Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, might prove particularly challenging in the most iconic of military occupations -- the infantry, among the most physically demanding and tradition-bound branches of the Marines and the Army.

Determining the best path forward to integrate women into this elite group will require hard-nosed honesty, careful management and compelling leadership.

For the 65 years that women have enjoyed a permanent place in the United States military, they have been subject to restrictions. One rationale is the notion embedded in our culture that women should be shielded from great physical risks. Another is a recognition of the physical superiority of the average male over the average female. A third is the fear that unit cohesion, critical to military performance, would suffer with the introduction of women.

Maren Leed

These three concerns apply to varying degrees in the infantry. But the last 11 years of war have clearly demonstrated that warfare is no longer waged in a linear fashion, and that the concept of "front line" no longer applies.

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Historically, logistics operations were conducted "in the rear," where risks were comparatively low. This has changed: In 2006 in Iraq, for example, one in every five truck convoys was attacked. Although infantry clearly remains one of the most dangerous military occupations, the proliferation of homemade bombs and other low-cost, lethal weaponry and tactics have heightened the risk of almost every occupation. War is more uniformly dangerous.

That said, physical differences between the sexes remains a thorny issue. Determining gender-neutral physical standards for an integrated infantry will be one of the most difficult tasks ahead.

Infantry soldiers and Marines are the primary forces for operations on foot. They not only travel long distances, but also frequently carry loads in excess of 50 pounds. Both the short- and long-term health effects of such demands can be significant.

Single mom fought alongside combat troops in Afghanistan

The Defense Department has consistently pursued solutions to lighten the load, from exoskeletons to unmanned vehicles that would serve as "pack mules," to the elusive quest for higher power, lower weight batteries.

The success of these efforts will benefit both men and women. But until that happens, research into the effects these physical demands have on women is necessary before determining the degree to which they can, and should, be part of the full range of infantry.

Whether men serving in the infantry will accept women as peers is another open question.

Those who oppose women in the infantry argue that they would change group dynamics, disrupt bonding and ultimately harm unit cohesion. In the past, these fears have been brought up regarding the participation of minorities and homosexuals, too. But data show these negative predictions don't come true. Instead, successful integration has happened with strong leadership, and, critically, a process that is broadly perceived to be fair.

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Even if the arguments underpinning the ban on women in combat have weakened, is there sufficient justification for change? The Joint Chiefs apparently believe so, as they have unanimously recommended the ban be lifted.

Each of the services already has been taking steps along these lines. This is in part driven by the evolution of the battlefield. When today's senior leaders were serving time in Iraq and Afghanistan, they realized that the restrictions on women sometimes also restricted their missions.

They implemented work-arounds and sought exceptions to policy. But they came home with firsthand experience of the mismatch between modern warfare and the policies limiting women's role. Women are in combat, and senior military leaders believe that future success demands they must remain available to be so, in even greater numbers.

From the institutional viewpoint, there are also concerns that the traditional limitations fail to make the best use of women in the service. Combat experience weighs heavily in promotion decisions, and restrictions have precluded women from gaining experiences equal to those of male counterparts.

Women are also excluded from many of the occupations disproportionately represented in senior leadership, and that automatically limits the number of women who can advance to the highest levels. At the same time, the pool of Americans eligible for military service is shrinking, and competition for high-quality recruits is intensifying. So it's imperative that the military fully leverage the talent of the men and women it has and that it seeks to attract.

By the numbers: Women in the U.S. military

The arguments in favor of lifting the ban on women in combat outweigh those against it. Despite Defense Secretary Leon Panetta's announcement on Thursday, the military services maintain the prerogative to preclude women from serving in certain positions or occupations.

Infantry, or at least some specialties within that branch, could well be a case in which restrictions are warranted. But military leaders have time to evaluate this proposition, and to set the conditions to make any change stick. The path ahead may not be smooth, but it is necessary.

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The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Maren Leed.

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